It is reported two TES volunteer searchers have stated that on September 1st and September 3rd, they searched the area in which Caylee’s remains were ultimately found and saw nothing suspicious. Let’s look at the rainfall during the period from the time Caylee’s body was most likely dumped and the time these searches were conducted. First, we’ll start with the assumption that Caylee’s body was dumped in the location on the 22nd of June (just to align with the entomology report).
From Weather Underground we find that:
- From June 22nd to July 1st there was 2.14 inches of rainfall in the Orlando area.
- For the month of July there was 6.54 inches of rainfall in the Orlando area.
- For the month of August there was 12.15 inches of rainfall in the Orlando area.
That is a total of 20.83 inches of rain from the time Caylee’s body was dumped until the first of September when these searches were alleged to have taken place. Now, let’s see what we could expect as far as collected water in the area using the topography map provided in the autopsy report (page 34). For the sake of this analysis we will work only with the area depicted in the topography map, since the ground appears to begin to rise again as you continue south-southeast away from Suburban Drive and further into the wooded area. In addition, to make a conservative estimate, we will not include any stormwater flow back toward the site where the body was found from the direction of the south-southeast, even though the ground rises toward that direction. In other words, we will be conservative at all steps in this. We will simply calculate stormwater flow based on the area of ground depicted in the topo of the document and toward Suburban Drive.
Caylee’s body was not found at the lowest topography line in this area. The majority of her remains, including the bags she was discarded in, and therefore the safe to assume exact location she was initially placed, were found at a level of 79.5 ft. I have estimated the “basin” (i.e. the lowest point to which stormwater would drain and settle), which sits at 78.7 ft, at 1000 sq. ft. This is conservative. In other words, I have made this basin as big as practically possible in order for it to hold more rainwater before it starts rising. The area toward Suburban Drive that drains to this basin I have also been conservative in estimating, in other words this time I have made it as small as practically possible to minimize the rainwater draining to the basin. I have measured it at 25 ft x 127 ft, or 3175 sq. ft.
Taking these measurements this means that for every 1 inch of rainfall, the basin fills to a depth of 4.175 inches. It rained 20.83 inches between June 22nd and September 1st. Of course, we’re not going to use 20.83 inches of rain to calculate the depth because some portion of that would have percolated into the ground and been absorbed by the plant life. In fact, we’ll completely disregard June and July and we won’t even look at ALL of the 12.15 inches that fell through-out the month of August (even though by that time the ground would have been well saturated and the majority of that rainfall would have stood on the ground for an extended period of time). We’ll pretend all of June, July and half of August’s rainfall went away, even though the area was greatly shaded and evaporation wouldn’t have helped much.
No, we’ll just look at the last 14 days of August – the two weeks leading to September 1st when one of the TES searchers states they were there. 10.83 inches fell in the last 14 days of August. To remain conservative in our estimate we will apply the same area to each topography level as we did the basin. That is 1,000 sq. ft. to each topography level, or 144,000 sq. in. And then when we get to 81 ft elevation, so that we remain ultra-conservative, we will double that area to 2000 sq.ft., or 288,000 sq. in. because it seems to have a bit more area beginning at that elevation. So now we will calculate the water level using only the 10.83 inches in the last 14 days of August to get what could have been expected on September 1st. 10.83 inches over the entire watershed plus the basin comes to 6,510,996 inches of stormwater falling on and draining to the basin.
When all topographical levels’ areas are taken into account this raises the top of the water level standing in the basin to the 81.23 ft elevation. This level matches well with what the searchers state in that they state they walked along the fence of the backyard adjoining the property. That fence is on a topography level of 81.57 ft, which means they would have been able to walk on dry land. Little Caylee was resting at a level of 79.5 feet. That puts Caylee’s remains, from the level they rested, to the top of the water, under 1-3/4 feet of water and approximately 40 feet away from the closest point the searchers could have gotten from the fence and remained on dry land.
THEY WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE REMAINS.
I am including links provided by commenter Willow that have pictures of just after tropical storm Fay, taken on August 22, 2008, to show how conservative the above analysis is.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-fay.pg,0,3921165.photogallery
http://www.clickorlando.com/weather/17259004/detail.html
Valhall.
Related posts:
- Rainfall Analysis for Conditions on August 11, 2008
- Wind Analysis for September 3, 2008
- Mason’s water problem and a review of the water analysis report
- Caylee Anthony case: An analysis of Dr. Jawitz’s report
- Analyzing the Analysis: The Waterlevel Report
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